Prediction and Modeling

Numerical models will be used to study the physical processes that control coastal sea ice break-up. The models will study pan-Arctic and local processes that affect sea ice breakup. A wave model, coupled sea ice and ocean model, and statistical and single column models will all be developed in the Arctic PISCES project.

Wave Modeling

A wave model will be used to research the interactions between waves and ice. The model will incorporate pack ice and landfast ice data to examine the effects of pack ice dissipating wave energy and wave energy eroding landfast ice.

Maps of inputs and outputs of the Arctic PISCES wave model (PNNL).

Coupled Sea Ice and Ocean Modeling

A coupled sea ice and ocean model is being developed for sub-seasonal to seasonal sea ice forecasting. It consists of components for sea ice and the ocean with atmospheric forcings derived from atmosphere reanalysis or forecasts. The model will cover the Arctic Ocean and subarctic seas, with a higher resolution (~2 km) along the Alaskan coastline. A landfast ice component will be included. The model will assimilate observed sea ice concentrations to improve initial conditions for forecasts.

Model grid cell size of the Coastal Alaska Panarctic Modeling and Assimilation System (APL/UW).

Statistical and Single Column Models

Statistical and single column models will be used to evaluate coastal sea ice thickness and break-up in northern Alaska. The models will use seasonal forecast data from NOAA to generate outlooks for break-up and freeze up for a few North Slope coastal communities, at a grid cell size of around 20 km.

Ocean depth in the Arctic PISCES grid cells (APL/US) for the statistical and single column models which will operate at a coarser scale (UAF).